اخبار
انخفاض سعر صرف الشيكل امام الدولار ؛ فما هي التوقعات القادمة ؟
شهدت اسواق العملات انخفاض سعر صرف الشيكل بشكل حاد في التعاملات الصباحية هذا اليوم مقابل الدولار، وذلك على وقع بيانات التضخم الأمريكية التي أدت إلى انخفاض اسعار الأسهم بشكل حاد.
كما شهدت الاسواق انخفاض سعر صرف الشيكل مقابل اليورو بنسبة 1% ليصل إلى 3.61 شيكل لليورو الواحد.
ملخص التوقعات:
يتوقع أن يستمر الدولار في ارتفاعه عند مستويات 3.46-3.47 في اليومين القادمين حتى مساء الاربعاء.
وذلك بسبب قرار الفيدرالي المنتظر الساعة التاسعة مساء من يوم الاربعاء.
حيث أنه وفي حال تم رفع الفائدة بنصف نقطة كما هو متوقع فإن الدولار سيصمد عند مستويات 3.50 شيكل لدولار.
بينما وفي حالة رفعه بشكل مفاجئ بمقدار 75 نقطة فإن سعر الصرف قد يتجه إلى اختراق 3.50 شيكل.
مع التأكيد على أن سعر الصرف قد يتباطئ بداية الشهر القادم، بسبب احتمالية حركة المركزي الاسرائيلي على الفائدة.
حيث سيجتمع المركزي بداية الشهر القادم، ويمكن أن يقوم برفع الفائدة على الشيكل لمعالجة التضخم.
والحديث هنا عن تباطؤ ارتفاع سعر الدولار، وليس انخفاض سعر صرف الدولار بشكل كبير، بحيث يتوقع أن يتماسك الدولار عند مستويات 3.40-3.50 حتى نهاية الشهر الحالي (مع ثبات العوامل الأخرى المساندة مثل السياسية والتجارية).
التفاصيل:
عزز الدولار الأمريكي سعره بشكل كبير مقابل العملات الدولار واليورو كما أشرنا في المقدمة مدفوعا بارتفاع التضخم وتراجع اداء الأسهم.
كما عزز من سعره أمام الين الياباني، والذي وصل إلى أدنى مستوى خلال 24 عامًا مقابل الدولار هذا الصباح.
حيث اتسعت الفجوة بين عائدات السندات اليابانية والأمريكية، بعد أن أدت أرقام التضخم الأمريكية إلى ارتفاع عائدات السندات الدولارية بشكل حاد.
أما عن أسباب ضعف الشيكل وتراجعه، فتعود إلى متطلبات التحوط من جانب مؤسسات الاستثمار المؤسساتية حينما تنخفض اسواق الأسهم.
فعندما تنخفض أسعار الأسهم في الأسواق الأمريكية، كما حدث مؤخراً، ينخفض تعرض المؤسسات للدولار وفقًا لذلك ، وبالتالي فإنها تعكس مراكز التحوط الخاصة بها ، وتبيع الشيكل مقابل الدولار.
أما عن المستفيدين من ارتفاع سعر صرف الدولار، فهم:
-
من يتقاضون رواتبهم أو عوائدهم بالدولار ونفقاتهم بالشيكل.
-
المصدرون، الذين تدخل بنك اسرائيل المركزي لشراء العملات الاجنبية لتخفيف قوة الشيكل التي تؤذي قيمة بضائعهم وارتفاع قيمتها امام العملات الاخرى.
وينتظر المستثمرون أمرين مهمين جدا هما:
الأول. قرار مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي المقرر الإعلان عنه يوم الأربعاء الساعة التاسعة مساء والذي قد يفاجئنا وفقا لبعض المحللين.
حيث قد يعمل الفيدرالي على رفع الفائدة ب75 نقطة بدلا من 50 نقطة.
الآخر، هو قراءة مؤشر اسعار المستهلكين في اسرائيل لشهر مايو يوم الاربعاء.
وهو المؤشر الذي يتوقع أن يرتفع بنسبة 0.8%، ليتجاوز التضخم السنوي في اسرائيل 4%.
وقد قال رونين مناحوت رئيس الابحاث والاستثمار في بنك مزراحي لموقع جلوبس:
“سيجبر المركزي الاسرائيلي على القيام باتخاذ أمر يتعلق برفع اسعار الفائدة على الشيكل في اجتماعه القادم في 3/7/2022”.
كما يؤكد مناحيم على أن الوضع الاقتصادي العالمي الآن بات غير واضح بشكل كبير..
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